In the latest rounds of PTR patching Explosive Shot took a pretty heavy nerf to the face. And the addition of Black Arrow and the removal of Serpent Sting from the Lock and Load talent has people seeing very few and far between procs.
The bonus of Black Arrow however is the 6% increased damage when it is active. However the duration is only 15 seconds with a 30 second cooldown allowing us to only maintain a 50% up-time. So in reality it is more along the lines of a 3% DPS increase, similar to Noxious Stings. On top of that, Black Arrow shares the cooldown with our traps so Immolation Trap isn’t an option.
First, let’s compare Explosive Shot numbers to see what kind of damage we are looking at. In its current form we have numbers like this:
[ 16% of RAP + 428 ] – [ 16% of RAP + 516 ] = 1148 – 1236
This is unbuffed assuming 4500 attack power. The new formula gives us numbers like this:
[ 14% of RAP + 386 ] – [ 14% of RAP + 464 ] = 1016 – 1094
So we are seeing a 11.5% damage reduction on our Explosive Shots. Since Explosive Shot was compromising roughly 40% of the average Survival Hunter’s DPS it will be a noticeable reduction in their overall output. Very rough calculations put it at a 4.6% overall DPS reduction. This isn’t exactly accurate, assuming talents like T.N.T and what not, but it is a rough idea.
Black Arrow damage calculations looks like this:
[RAP * 0.1 + 2765] = 3215
That’s 3215 damage over 15 seconds, or 214.3 DPS for 15 seconds. Averaging out that number you actually get a total contribution of 107.16 DPS when you figure out how much DPS you get over the course of 30 seconds until you can cast it again.
But here is a very important note. Currently on the PTR there is only a single rank of Black Arrow, not 6 as we are seeing on Wowhead and MMO-Champion. And if this is the case, my Rank 1 Black Arrow is only doing 1218 damage over 15 seconds. Which is only 81.2 DPS over 15 seconds, or 40.6 DPS over 30 seconds until it can be refreshed again.
Let’s compare that with Immolation Trap in terms of pure DPS:
[RAP * 0.1 + 1885] = 2335
So if there are suppose to be 6 ranks, Black Arrow is point-for-point better than Immolation Trap. However if there is only one rank of Black Arrow, Immolation Trap provides 37.2 DPS more than Black Arrow (Rank 1) over 30 seconds, or a total of 77.83 DPS. So what the question ends up being is 6% increased damage 50% of the time better than using Immolation Trap?
The answer is most likely yes. Assuming you were doing 4000 DPS (not counting your pet), Black Arrow would net you a 120 DPS gain. 5000 DPS would net you a 150 DPS gain. 2000 DPS would only net 60 DPS.
You can also add in the 40.6 DPS Black Arrow actually contributes as well. Which makes 2000 DPS actually gain 100.6 DPS (60 DPS from the Black Arrow effect and 40.6 from the DoT). So as long as you are able to personally put out more than 1400 DPS or so, Black Arrow is the better choice.
An interesting observation would be if we choose to glyph for Immolation Trap, which would increase my personal Immolation Trap damage to 4670, or 155.7 DPS over 30 seconds. If we add the 40.6 DPS that Black Arrow contributes, that would mean that at the 4000 personal DPS level, using Black Arrow over a glyphed Immolation Trap is only a gain of 5 DPS.
Of course, this is all moot if we end up seeing 5 more ranks like MMO and Wowhead are suggesting. Remember some of these numbers are dependent on your ranged attack power (such as Black Arrow, Explosive Shot, and Immolation Trap damage) and how much personal DPS your are able to output.
Thoughts, opinions, concerns, and mathematical corrections are always welcome! Post ‘em here!
Black Arrow will definitely be worth it. Whether or not it compensates for the numerous Explosive Shot centered nerfs is still a bit of a tossup.
On another unrelated note. Yay Piercing Shots!
http://blue.mmo-champion.com/28/15443410287-mm-hunters-bugs-with-piercing-shots-on-ptr.html
From my PTR observations, patch 3.1 is a _long_ way from going live. Talking about it is a bit like speculating what you;re gonna get for Christmas in May.
@Anchovy Not talking about it, testing or, or what not defeats the purpose of having a PTR. Ulduar isn’t the only thing that is looking to be tested. Balance issues, game mechanics, class balancing are all issues that are meant to be tried, tested, and analyzed on the PTR. It’s a long ways off because there is so much to be tested. Hunter abilities included.
@Shmii Good to see they are going to try and fix MM bleeds.
whatever happened too that “ranged trap” shot ?? is that what your comparing black arrow too?
I truly am starting too think the dev. team needs too step back for a second and really start thinking about the hunter class differantly.
i remember a time when the top skill in survival was Rend…then Readiness, now a shot that has been worked over more times then Micheal Jackson’s Face. The problem is the damage it’s the placement of the shot, ES should be in MM, not Survival.
Every time i hear what there doing with the Hunter class’s pets, or shots or talents, i can’t get over how messed up the class has become. it used too be BM for leveling, MM for Raiding, and Surv “should” be a pvp class of some sort..but it’s like all 3 tree’s are in some twisted DPS race, and are competing with each other….
for instance…WHY do we even NEED black arrow? and if so why is it linked too my traps? infact: why are my 5 traps on a Linked cd at all? a warlock and slap me with 4 differant Dots almost instantly where i can put a 1 at my feet and hope he steps over it….
whatever happened too Camoflage? i would give my left leg too have 10 seconds of invisablity on a 60sec. cd for my 51 point talent for surv. and my traps on sepreate cd’s ….
i mean do you see what i’m trying too say Dro?
Oh and i should be able too move and !autoshot. should have been done years ago.
@Hans No, it would just be dropping a trap at the mobs feet. The trap launcher is still noticeably absent from the PTR. I believe the devs said it might not make it in.
While I enjoy digging down into the numbers and understanding the nuts and bolts of my DPS, but sometimes, we’ve just got to grin and bear it.
At this point, if you are focused on PvE content, the loss of 150 DPS is trivial. Will it make it harder for you to top the damage meters? You bet. Will it stop you from downing bosses? Not bloody likely.
To me, digging so deep into the numbers to analyze the how and why we might be losing a mere 150+/- DPS, sucks a lot of the fun out of the game. If the changes were preventing players (or classes) from being contributing members to a raid, then I would definitely raise a stink. As it stands, I will just have to work that much harder to stay competitive in the DPS race.
All that being said, I enjoyed your mathematical investigation and am glad you did the leg work (because I’m too lazy).
Hesston’s last blog post..Heroic: Glory of the Raider
@Hesston To me it doesn’t suck any fun out of the game. I find it rather enjoyable. :) All growing up, who woulda guessed I would have liked math so much. :)
Hm, personal testing showed me that the nerf to explosiv shot isnt as bad as it sounds, sure its a nerf but it could ve been worse. I am still doing more dps with surv than on live. specc should also scale ok with gear so i dont see much of a problem here, dmg in the ulduar patchwerk thing was still ok, people with comparable gear didnt come near my dmg.
Glad to see MM getting some love and i am still frustrated bout PTR that if i skill from SV to test BM i ve to dismiss pet and stuff to get them actually work :(,
The only problem i can see right now with SV – its a major concern actually – is that BA with its 6% chance for lnl procc is really low, sometimes i get 2 minutes of no lnl procc which is really sad, its too much of a “make or break” ability which shouldnt ve such a low chance to accure. Sadly i can’t post on us forums as an eu player to convince GC on that matter :*
Drot becoming quite the Einstein :-P
Ok i think i lost what i was saying in my rant Dro, lemme try too keep it simple
Do you think that the Talents should be more accurate in depicting the kind of spec. one should be? My problem right now is that, as it stands a Survival Hunter does noticeably more damage using ES then a MM hunter using chimera. Like i said, shouldn’t Survival have some sort of Stealth, or Heal, or immunity some thing that would dictate the “NAME” survival hunter.
To Whylde,
LnL is now 6% at 3/3? Damnit that makes all the LnL numbers I posted even worse. Which makes Resourcefulness look worse now too.
Procs from BA are now at once every 100 seconds excluding effects like Resourcefulness. .6 PPM sucks.
I’d like to point out that the nerf to Explosive Shot from 16% to 14% AP applies only to the PTR. The live servers already have the 14% AP nerf in place from the hotfix last month. Re: comments to your Feb 4 post.
I probably won’t be around to see 3.1 drop (leaving on deployment in April), but then again I might (back in June/July). :)
With Readiness in the MM tree and the nerfage to SV coming, I’ll probably end up back as MM. With the raid benefit to EW gone and the goal of Blizz making everyone fairly close in dps ability, SV really has little to offer anymore IMO.
Now I’ll just have to decide whether to go BM/MM or MM/SV dual spec.
@Leighlu Be careful where you go! We need our Hunters. :)
MM is looking appealing, especially once they fix bleeds. Although I think I am still personally leaning towards BM. Maybe its just because I really want to use that Spirit Beast. :)
Hans – I’m not Dro, but I’ll answer your question. =p
No, I don’t think there is anything wrong with this. Part of the issue is that due to class balance, ES has been changed. A lot. Initially, it was a neat utility shot with some AoE, in addition to some single target butt-kicking, clearly fitting into a ‘Survival Hunter’ set up as you might see it.
What I find interesting is that how you see the specs is the opposite as what most people like. Most people want ‘their’ spec to be THE top spec for whatever they want to do, typically endgame raids. You seem to want 1 homogenized spec for all raiders.
I like the direction the PTR is headed. where all 3 specs would be a viable raiding choice. I dont’ know pvp, but it would seem that even for pvp, the three are viable. I can’t really see where this can be a bad thing. I for one was tired of BM. I love BM, I level BM, I raided BM until the Big Nerf.
Being able to swap specs and do comparable dps will be a boon to the enjoyment of this game for us endgame players, where stagnation is always a looming issue.
Remua’s last blog post..I’m not so good at this
Not being able to get LnL cranking will completely suck the PvE out of SV. Add to that ES nerfs. It’s hard to think they’re balancing SV.
Every tree is supposed to be viable for PvE and PvP. DPS levels as I understood them were supposed to be BM < MM <= SV. Because BM “should be a little lower than SV” because of the lack of complexity. Easier situational awareness and all.
They really just don’t know what will happen when people play the class until they get stats off the servers. They don’t give us a real PTR (in 3.0.8) and launch with only them “really knowing the numbers”.
Kheldul’s last blog post..It’s a hit!
@Remua – Ok i see what your saying, and yes it is kinda opposite as what most people like. but the reasons i have behind my thoughts is after watching other classes have completely differant ways of playing like Warriors, (prot vs Fury) pally (holy vs Ret) and priests (disc holy shadow) there spec really dictates what they do in a raid. for instance
think about this for a second. a Druid in Faral can Tank an instance no problem
wouldn’t it be cool that for the 51 point talent in Survival a Hunter could tank an instance
by boosting stats like a bear formed druid??
now do you kinda see what i’m saying? why is a hunter stuck dealing 3 differant types of damage?
51 point Survival talent – Aspect of the Beast
Your pet and you Combine forming a Melee Beast of great power
combining your two armor, health, and power.
only one aspect may be on at a time.
(and they could use that wer-lion animation)
Would it be neat? Yes. But, my argument to you would be that makes us LESS special, not more.
As a pure-dps class, we are in the minority. Mages, Warlocks, Rogues, and Us. We are the only ones where are role is always hit it until it stops moving. Make 1 tank spec for us, now we’re warriors. (Dks can tank in several specs, depending on instance and such.)
Our role is always going to be ‘stand still and shoot.’ As a rogues will be ‘stabbity-stab stab until it stops bleeding.’ And a mage is ‘feed me and try not to die.’ And a lock’s is ‘wait, really? We have a lock?”
Yeah, I’m being facetious. But the point remains, we are a pure dps class. It’s not going to change. I don’t want it to change. If we accept a spec that gives us the abilty to heal or tank, we will lose our dps edge, which pure dps classes are supposed to have by design. If a Feral Druid can do as much damage as a rogue, why bring a rogue? He can’t go bear when things go south…
Further, you’ll start being EXPECTED to be in that tank/healing role. Ever try to get an instance as a Shadow Priest? Not much fun. DPS druid? They can tank OR heal, why are they in my dps slot?
The short answer is, if you want to tank, play another class. =p A drastic overhaul to the role of the hunter class would be far more counterproductive to the balancing of our class.
Remua’s last blog post..I’m not so good at this
@ Remua:
I agree. I play a DPS class to do DPS. That and all my friends were horde and Nelf female hunter just wasn’t going to fly.
@ Remua – ok you got me thar. I hunter there for i damage. i guess my agrument stems from playing Final fantasy XI where a single char. could play any class that was needed, all you had too do was lvl that particular class, and then on top of that you could have a sub-class that was 1/2 the lvl of your main class that would complement the class you where at the time. and FFXI has like 15 classes with a lvl cap of 75
and all this talk about Duel-specs really got me thinking about the hunter class in particular about it…sure Duel speccing is IDEAL for a war, or a pally where a simple swap could fill a tank or heal, or even another dps spot
but it bugs me when talked about the hunter class with a duel spec of dps, dps or dps….
@ Hans: I’m going to save a fortune in gold. Raid Spec and PvP Spec.
Yo Dro, I haven’t commented in awhile, but I wanted to raise a few questions for you and everybody. First, has there been any real comment about Trap Launcher other then the fact that it isn’t going to be ready for 3.1? When the ability was first announced, I was really excited about the prospect for both PvP and PvE, and it really felt like a true SV hunter ability… and then we got Black Arrow, a shadow dot :\ which we really didn’t need.
My concern about Black Arrow is whether it is a placeholder or if it is a true replacement. All indications from Blizz seem to make it appear that it is meant to be the former, but I remember a certain 41pt trap talent that blizz said they would be fixing soon… and it took them all the way to 3.1 to change it at all, and they changed it to yet another placeholder.
What I’m trying to say is that Blizz seems to be highly preoccupied with the damage of the three specs, which I certainly agree is very important to the balance of the game, but I worry that all of this balancing, especially around talents that are supposed to be placeholders, is counterproductive.
I’m ok with the fact that they are doing a whole lot of work this patch, and there are certainly far more important concerns, but I really don’t want Trap Launcher to go the way of Bear Trap, and get pushed aside or eliminated entirely. Hopefully, we won’t be waiting until 3.2 for it.
Yeah, I was pretty upset when I logged on to the PTR last night to see the trap launcher was absent. I did up a SV spec and assuming recount works properly even though it’s out of date, I seemed to have gotten a slight solo DPS increase of about 150 DPS over my live spec. I guess we’ll see over the next few months.
Its obvious that black arrow wont give you that much dps in pvp. Why the hell do you have to spend one point for it then if you want explosive shot which is absolute must. Spells in lineup should be meaningfull but in this case blizard failed, hope they recognize it soon.